The Global Spyware Market: Alarming Expansion in 2025 Threat Intelligence Brief — By CyberDudeBivash

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Date: September 20, 2025 (IST)               Author :CyberDudeBivash

Executive summary

Despite sanctions, lawsuits, and high-profile exposures, the commercial spyware ecosystem is growing and adapting. New research expands the mapped market to 561 entities across 46 countries (↑ from 435), with 130 new entities added, including 43 created in 2024. Notably, US-based investors surged from 11 to 31, and under-the-radar resellers/brokers are increasingly central to sales and obfuscation. Atlantic Council

Vendors linked to Predator (Intellexa/Cytrox) show renewed activity across more than a dozen countries, even after sanctions and the UK–France Pall Mall Process. Recorded Future+2GOV.UK+2 Meanwhile, platform and legal pushback intensify—Apple shipped major anti-spyware hardening in iOS 26, and Meta won a $167M verdict against NSO—yet governments continue to procure tools (e.g., Paragon’s Graphite for ICE). Net—demand and capital keep the market buoyant. TechRadar+2The Washington Post+2

What’s driving the expansion (2024–2025)

  • More entities & capital: Atlantic Council’s new dataset maps 561 entities (vendors, investors, suppliers, partners), adding 130 and three new countries; US investors now lead the pack (31). Brokers/resellers increasingly grease cross-border deals and hide provenance. Atlantic Council

  • Vendor resilience: Predator infrastructure/operators rebounded; first suspected customer noted in Mozambique; footprint remains strong across Africa and beyond. Recorded Future

  • Policy gaps vs. practice: Diplomatic norms (e.g., Pall Mall code) and EU reforms haven’t yet translated into hard, enforceable limits—leaving space for procurement and investment workarounds. Just Security+1

  • Active procurement inside democracies: ICE contract for Graphite (Paragon) moved forward this month, underscoring ongoing domestic demand despite earlier reviews and restrictions. The Guardian+1

  • Platform & legal pushback (not a silver bullet):

    • Apple iOS 26 introduces Memory Integrity Enforcement and related defenses specifically targeting mercenary spyware classes. TechRadar

    • Courts: Meta vs. NSO verdict ($167M) marks a landmark—but hasn’t halted broader market growth. The Verge+1

    • EU’s EMFA takes effect to protect journalists, yet critics warn surveillance carve-outs dilute safeguards. The Record from Recorded Future

2025 snapshot 

  • Intellexa/Predator “resurgent” post-sanctions; new infra patterns, broader hosting ASNs, continued targeting of civil society and officials. Recorded Future

  • Investment contradictions: US sanctions/visa policies coexist with rising US funding into controversial vendors (e.g., investments in Paragon; Integrity Partners → Candiru). Atlantic Council

  • Victim landscape keeps widening: Apple threat notifications now routine and global; multi-country warnings point to mercenary targeting as a persistent risk class. Apple Support+1

  • EU policy flux: New journalist protections via EMFA contrasted by parallel surveillance debates (civil society warns of weakening). The Record from Recorded Future

Risk to organizations & individuals

  • Who’s at risk: journalists, activists, opposition figures, election stakeholders, diplomats, corporate execs (esp. sectors with geopolitical exposure). Recorded Future

  • Attack surface: mobile devices (zero/one-click chains), credential theft + cloud backup access, supply through brokers, and cross-border jurisdictional arbitrage. Recorded Future+1

Defensive priorities 

  1. Platform hardening now

    • Update iOS (26) / Android to latest; enable Lockdown Mode on high-risk users; enforce weekly device reboots on VIPs. TechRadar

  2. High-risk user program

    • Maintain a watchlist (journalists, policy, legal, external partners); enroll in Apple/Google advanced protection equivalents; monitor for Apple threat notifications. Apple Support

  3. Egress & DNS controls for C2

    • Alert/deny traffic to newly observed Predator T1 infra patterns; block suspicious domain families; require DNS-over-HTTPS logging for mobile fleets. Recorded Future

  4. Procurement & vendor guardrails

    • Establish a no-buy list aligned to sanctions/Entity List/visa bans; require transparency on resellers and beneficial ownership before any contract. Atlantic Council

  5. Legal & policy posture

    • Align with Pall Mall best practices; publish a human-rights impact assessment for any investigative tech; commit to independent oversight. GOV.UK+1

What to watch next

  • New investors and shell networks that route capital into sanctioned or Entity-Listed vendors. Atlantic Council

  • Government deals in democracies that test EO/visa-ban boundaries (e.g., Paragon/Graphite). The Guardian

  • Platform-level mitigations (Apple/Google) that remove whole exploit classes vs. whack-a-mole patching. TechRadar

Sources & further reading

  • Atlantic Council Mythical Beasts (2025 update): dataset grows to 561 entities, US-based investors surge; brokers’ role rises. Atlantic Council

  • Recorded Future (Insikt): Predator remains active; new suspected operator in Mozambique; infra evolution continues. Recorded Future

  • ICIJ: Intellexa entities appear resurgent despite 2024 US sanctions. ICIJ

  • Apple: new iOS 26 defenses aimed at mercenary spyware; threat notification guidance. TechRadar+1

  • Legal/policy: Meta v. NSO verdict; EMFA takes effect; Pall Mall process. The Washington Post+2The Record from Recorded Future+2

#CyberDudeBivash #Spyware #MercenarySpyware #Predator #Pegasus #Intellexa #Paragon #HumanRights #Journalism #EMFA #PallMallProcess #ThreatIntel

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